Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Northern Virginia? What 7 Percent Rates Mean for Buyers (October 2026)
Updated: Oct 22
It can be, especially if you rent or don't have to sell a home first. In early October 2026, mortgage rates hit their highest level in nearly three years, and the market has slowed: as of late September, fewer buyers were out looking, more homes were for sale, and buyers had more room to negotiate. Whether it's right for you comes down to your own numbers, and a lender can work those out with you. |
If 7 percent rates are making you hesitant, I understand. Here's what I'm seeing, and how I talk it through with my buyers.
What's happening with mortgage rates and the market?
Freddie Mac's weekly average for a 30-year fixed mortgage reached 7.40 percent on October 8, 2026, the highest since November 2023. Compared with the 2 and 3 percent rates of 2020 and 2021, that's high. Your own rate will depend on your loan, and a lender can quote it.
Higher rates mean fewer buyers. As of late September 2026, the number of homes for sale was going up, homes were sitting on the market longer, and in some areas homes were taking 70 days or more to get an acceptable offer.
The Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS® (NVAR) numbers for August 2026 show the same shift in supply. Active listings (homes for sale) were up more than 17 percent from a year earlier in Loudoun County and in the close-in areas NVAR tracks, like Fairfax and Arlington. Close in, the growth was in condos and townhomes, and detached listings fell. Fewer homes sold in both areas.
It still varies by area and by type of home. But overall, the market has been shifting toward a buyer's market, meaning buyers have more leverage in negotiations.
Why are buyers hesitant right now?
Rates have climbed quickly this fall, and buyers just don't know what's going to happen next. When things feel unsettled, a lot of people freeze. That's when the buyers who keep looking find room to negotiate.
The world is not ending. It's okay.
The real question is whether the numbers work for you, and you can find that out before you commit to anything.
What are buyers getting right now?
Less competition, for one. As of late September 2026, I wasn't seeing multiple offers the way I had been, and the last two buyers I helped had both bought below the asking price and gotten seller credits (money the seller puts toward the buyer's closing costs). Neither had to give up an inspection to get the house, and we still negotiated repairs after the inspections. If you're counting on a seller credit, ask your lender how much your loan allows.
I also expect sellers to take care of more repairs this fall. And if you're looking at new construction, builders are offering incentives, like upgrades at no extra charge.
Does it make sense to buy with rates around 7 percent?
It can, if what you negotiate outweighs what the higher rate adds to your payments. How much more per month would you actually spend, for how long, and how much would you save?
Say you negotiate $25,000 in all, between a lower price and seller credits, and today's rate costs you about $200 a month more than a lower rate would. That's $2,400 a year, so it would take more than ten years for the extra to add up to $25,000. If rates come down in the meantime, you may be able to refinance, though nobody can promise they will, and refinancing has its own costs. Have your lender run the numbers for your loan.
What you negotiate (lower price plus seller credits) | $25,000 |
What today's rate adds to your payment | About $200 a month |
That extra cost over a year | $2,400 |
Years before the extra adds up to $25,000 | More than ten |
Waiting has a cost as well. While you wait, the homes that fit you today may sell to someone else, and lower rates usually bring more buyers and higher prices.
What is a rate buydown?
A buydown lowers your interest rate because some of the interest is paid up front at closing, often by the seller. This fall, seller-paid buydowns are one of the biggest incentives on the table.
Type | How it works | Example on a 7 percent loan |
|---|---|---|
3-2-1 buydown | Lowers your rate by 3 percentage points the first year, 2 the second, and 1 the third. | You'd pay 4 percent, then 5, then 6, and 7 percent from the fourth year on. |
2-1 buydown | Works the same way over two years. | Two years of lower payments, then the full rate. |
Permanent buydown | Lowers the rate for the life of the loan. | If you refinance later, the money spent on it is gone. |
Not all lenders offer these, and loan products change. Before you count on one, ask your lender:
Can a seller pay for a buydown on my loan?
Will I qualify at the full rate or the lower one?
What happens to any unused buydown money if I refinance early?
Would a lower price, a seller credit, or a buydown save me the most?
Who benefits most from buying now?
The buyers who benefit most are the ones who don't have to sell a home. That includes owners who can rent out their current home, or keep it and sell later, say in the spring. Before you plan on carrying two homes for a while, sit down with a lender and see what your budget can handle.
Renters are in the same spot. You don't have to sell anything, so you can focus on getting a great deal on a house.
If you'd also like to sell, this market cuts both ways. One couple I've been working with got a great deal on a house, and they'd like to sell their current one too. For them, buying has gone well, and selling is harder. If that's you, look at both sides before you commit to either.
What should you do next?
Get your real numbers. Call me, and I'll connect you with a local lender who knows this market, or bring your own. Ask about your payment at today's rates and what a seller credit or buydown could do for it.
Compare the extra monthly cost with what you can negotiate.
Shop with your leverage in mind: price, credits, repairs, and keeping every inspection you want.
Frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to buy a house in Northern Virginia?
It can be, especially for renters and buyers who don't have to sell a home first. On October 8, 2026, Freddie Mac's average 30-year rate hit its highest level since November 2023, and as of late September, fewer buyers were looking, so buyers had more room to negotiate. A lender can show you what today's rates would mean for your payment.
Should I wait for mortgage rates to come down before I buy?
Not necessarily. Compare what today's rate adds to your monthly payment with what you can negotiate now. If rates fall after you buy, you may be able to refinance, though that has its own costs. If you wait for them to fall, lower rates usually bring more buyers and higher prices. A lender can run the numbers for your situation.
What is a 3-2-1 buydown?
It's a temporary buydown that lowers your rate by 3 percentage points the first year, 2 the second, and 1 the third. For example, on a 7 percent loan, you'd pay 4, 5, and 6 percent, then 7 percent from the fourth year on. It's paid at closing, and a seller may be able to pay for it as an incentive. Ask your lender whether they offer it on your loan.
Are sellers negotiating in Northern Virginia right now?
More than they were. As of late September 2026, the market was shifting toward buyers, and the last two buyers I helped had both bought below asking, gotten seller credits, kept every inspection, and negotiated repairs. Every house and area is different, and if you're counting on a seller credit, ask your lender how much your loan allows.
Do I have to sell my house before I buy another one?
Not always. Some buyers rent out their current home or keep it and sell later. Talk to a lender before you start shopping; they can tell you whether you could carry both payments for a while.
Buy on your own numbers
When you know your payment, what you can negotiate, and what waiting would cost, you can make the call with the facts in front of you. You're the captain. I guide and advise, and you decide.
If you're thinking about buying, call me, and we'll start with a conversation about what you're looking for.
You can also see how I work with buyers. I help buyers across Northern Virginia, from Fauquier County to Fairfax County.
Anthony Constable is a RE/MAX Gateway agent serving buyers and sellers across Northern Virginia as Constable Real Estate. He came to real estate from a career in construction and project management, and he was named Rookie of the Year out of about 130 agents in his office.
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